It's done. Everything that can be done is history. Sure, there are a couple of tune-up runs and one more 17-miler, but there is nothing I can do to ensure a sub-3, outside of proper rest, nutrition and hydration. Looking back at the last 15-weeks there is not much I would do differently. I hit my mileage goals and even though I wish I could have completed a couple additional quality runs, all in all I'm feeling pretty good. Outside of a sore foot I managed to get through it relatively unscathed. Am I in sub-3 shape? Well, we're about to find out in 20 days! There are some promising signs. I raced a 10K on Labor Day and managed a 37:49; a post 30 PR! Now, if I plug that time into the handy dandy MacMillan calculator it predicts that I will run a 2:57:30 marathon. Then there have been some troubling signs. Take today's 25K performance (please!). If I plug my 1:47:30 time into the same calculator I get a disappointing 3:08 marathon. (Not even a PR) If I split the differecne between Monday's "good" performance with today's sub-par performance I end with a 3:05 and change. A new marathon PR, but not what I'm training for. Oh well, it's just a calculator, not a cyrstal ball.
Victory 10K Race Report - It was perfect morning, 57 degrees, no wind and low dewpoint. I was feeling good and thought a sub-38 was doable. I started out at 6:07, right on pace. Mile 2 was more of the same and I was just feeling okay. There is a slight hill to finish mile 3 and it hit me pretty hard and my pace slowed to 6:20 (ugh) At this point I had resigned myself to a 38:15 or slower finsish. Then a funny thing happened on the return trip. I cruised down the hill and kept my stride as the road leveled out. Holy cow, mile 4 was 5:56; where did that come from? I was still feeling strong, so just decided to maintain that pace and hang on for dear life. Mile 5 was 5:58! I started to struggle a bit halfway through mile 6, but held on for a 6 flat mile and a 37:49 10K. There is some crazy good comeptition in my age group and ended up 8th in my age group.
City of Lakes 25K - much warmer and higher dewpoint than Monday's race. I don't want to make that my excuse, but the heat (74 degrees) and humidity were a factor. I was shooting to beat last year's time of 1:45, but it wasn't meant to be. I started out way too slow (7:10) and had trouble finding my marathon pace gear. I finally started to run 6:52's after mile 5 and then was able to start knocking off 5 or 6 6:48 miles. My legs were not feeling strong. so I was not able to make up much time on the back half. I decided to settle into a 6:50 pace and hang on. I ended up with an average pace of 6:55, which is pretty disappointing. I had enough gas left to propably run another 10 miles at 7 minute pace, but that don't add up to sub-3.
One more tune-up race next Saturday then I get to back-off for real.
Happy Running!
Forget today's tuneup, weather is no joke and surely had a real effect on you, not to mention you've been working hard consistently, plus just raced last week. That 10k is gorgeous, btw and for more than a 30+PR: remember that return trip for the future when you're feeling lousy, remember that things can turn in your favor and then some.
ReplyDeleteSub3 is soon to be yours, I'd bet on it.
Stay positive man. The taper will make a big difference for you. If you get lucky with the weather you'll have a good shoot at it.
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